The following is a snapshot of US Quick-Service Restaurant (QSR) trends for Q1 2026.

Note: Trends may vary slightly depending on data availability at the time of reporting.

Q1 2026 QSR Performance Summary

QSR Sales, Traffic & Pricing Trends Overview

Net Sales

In Q1 2026, U.S. QSR net sales grew +2.1% YOY, bouncing back from the low point of -0.4% in Q4 2025. This rebound suggests that brands that took a more strategic, data-driven approach to pricing are seeing improved performance.

Traffic

In Q1 2026, U.S. QSR traffic was down -1.2% YOY compared to Q1 2025, which saw an decrease of -0.8% YOY. While still on par with last year, this is a striking rebound from downfall seen in Q4 2025.

Average Price

Fast-food brands posted a +1.2% YOY price change in Q1 2026. Price increases are stabilizing with this quarter coming in close to last quarter’s +1.6% YOY increase. Rising oil, beef and other key ingredient costs continue to push menu prices upward.

Where Can Restaurants Grow From Here?

Not every category is feeling the pressure equally, and the data shows where guests are still spending. New consumer research from Revenue Management Solutions indicates that more than 1 in 4 restaurant guests are already buying specialty beverages weekly, and 14% are even coming back multiple times a week. For operators, that repeat buyer segment is a strong opportunity worth targeting. See more insights and strategies for converting sales in RMS’ latest beverage report.

What This Means for Operators: Weekly buyers are a small segment, but they punch above their weight in revenue. Keep them coming back with loyalty rewards and make sure specialty beverages are easy to find on your menu. Restaurant solutions like Menu Engineering can help brands pinpoint customer engagement to optimize design for profitability.

What’s Driving Restaurant Growth & Decline?

RMS continues to analyze QSR growth drivers to understand if sales is driven by traffic (number of customers), average check (spending per customer), or both. As a reminder, restaurants can grow sales in different ways:

• Balanced Growth: Both traffic and average check increase. This indicates healthy momentum.
• Check-Driven Growth: Sales increase primarily through higher prices or upselling. This can increase short-term profit but introduces long-term traffic risk.
• Traffic-Driven Growth: Rising guest counts while average check stays flat.

Similarly, not all declines are the same:

• A restaurant might see declining traffic, but spending per guest is stable.
• Traffic could be steady, but average checks are lower.
• Worst case, traffic is slowing and average check is lower, indicating Systematic Decline.

Key Observations of Q1 2026 Growth Drivers

Balanced Growth Edges Back Up

After dropping to 29.8% in Q4 2025, Balanced Growth recovered to 36.4% in Q1 2026, nearly matching Q3 2025 levels. More than one in three QSR operators are growing both traffic and check simultaneously, a sign that well-positioned brands are finding their footing again after a difficult fourth quarter.

Traffic-Driven Pressure Continues

Across all five quarters Traffic-Driven Growth has stayed narrow, never cracking 10% in isolation. More operators are losing guests even while moderating prices, suggesting value perception is becoming more important than price alone.

Systematic Decline Has Improved

The share of QSR operators in Systematic Decline has slightly decreased from 9.3% in Q1 2025 to 7.9% Q1 2026. However, traffic and check pressures remain a persistent challenge for the bottom tier in the current economic climate.

The Bottom Line: Q1 2026 brings a cautious recovery at the top, but the gap between operators in Balanced Growth and those in Systematic Decline is still on the line. The brands gaining ground are doing so through consistency and guest value, not favorable macro conditions.

Consultant’s Corner

World Cup 2026: What Restaurant Operators Need to Know About Traffic & Sales

104 matches. 11 U.S. cities. The World Cup is just around the corner and data from 7,000+ restaurant locations shows the stakes are real. The right operators can see sales climb 8% to 20%, while unprepared competitors in soccer-heavy markets risk a 1.4% dip. With millions of soccer fans ready to celebrate, this one’s too big to wing. Find your success strategy.