Restaurant Trends November 2023

US Quick-Service Sales & Traffic Performance

The following is a snapshot of US Quick-Service Restaurant (QSR) trends for October 2023.

Overview

QSR Traffic Performance, October 2023

QSR US traffic is down -2.5% compared to October 2022, with a further decline in performance from the previous month.

October traffic trends are consistent with Revenue Management Solution’s Q3 consumer report, in which 31% of respondents reported ordering ‘less’ or ‘much less’ from QSRs in the past month.

Average price increased +4.5% YOY, but month-over-month trends show a steady slowdown in pricing compared to 2022. RMS predicts stabilization in average price trends as we approach the year-end.

QSR Average Price Performance, October 2023

Breakdown of Monthly QSR Performance Trends

QSR Sales Decomp, October 2023

When compared to October 2022:

  • Net sales remain positive at +1.9% YOY.
  • Traffic is down -2.5% YOY. Sales continue to be driven by average check increases (+4.5% YOY).
  • QSR average price increased +4.5% YOY.
  • Quantity per transaction (QPT) stabilized, showing no change year-over-year (0% YOY). It’s important to highlight that QPT, which was negative last year, has now steadied at the lower level.

QSR Daypart Channels

QSR Traffic Performance by Daypart October 2023
  • Dinner continues as QSR’s best-performing daypart, though slightly down (-0.3%) compared to October 2022.
  • Lunch QSR traffic is down -3.6% YOY.
  • Breakfast traffic is down -4.1% YOY. 

QSR Revenue Channels

QSR Traffic Performance by Revenue Channel, August 2023
  • Despite possible service and fee costs, delivery remains the top-performing channel, up +17.7% YOY.
  • Takeout (+8.0%) performed positively YOY.
  • Dine-in traffic is up +2.8% YOY, though performance declined slightly compared to previous months.
  • Drive-thru traffic is down -7.5% YOY.

A volatile, inflationary environment requires highly focused, data-driven solutions. Access RMS’ additional resources or reach out today with questions. We’re here to help.

Consultant’s Corner

Hungry (but Not for Human Contact), Americans Head for the Drive-Through

Fast food brands are prioritizing drive-thru optimization to align with post-pandemic consumer behavior.

To understand the current landscape, The New York Times National Food Correspondent, Kim Severson, outlines the reasons behind the shift to drive-thru, how brands are applying innovative ideas and technology, and what this indicates for the future of the industry.

RMS is ready to support restaurant brands through ever-changing times. Reach out to us today for practical strategies to optimize your menu profitability, sales and financial health.

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