Restaurant Trends December 2022
US Quick-Service Trends
In November 2022, QSR US traffic decreased both year-over-year and month-over-month. Compared to November 2021, traffic is down -3.0%. Month-over-month traffic performance declined slightly compared to October (-2.6%).
Average price change has finally stabilized. In November 2022, the average price was +15% compared to November 2021, though it declined from last month (+15.8% YOY). With the holiday season beginning and 2022 ending, RMS will continue to monitor QSR traffic and pricing activity trends.
Breakdown of Monthly QSR Trends
The following is a snapshot of US Quick-Service Restaurant (QSR) trends for November 2022.
When compared to November 2021:
- Net sales remain positive, up +7.1% in November 2022 compared to November 2021.
- Average check increased +10.4% YOY, offsetting a -3.0% decline in traffic trends YOY and resulting in continued positive net sales for the QSR segment in November.
- QSR average price is at +15.0% YOY. Detailed analysis reveals that brands are taking price on both the main menu and value items.
- Basket size decreased -4.0% YOY, suggesting customers are cutting back on overall restaurant spending. Customers reduced their basket size most during breakfast occasions (-6.8%) and when ordering delivery (-6.2%). Dine-in saw the slightest change, down just -1.7% YOY.
- Inflation continues to affect purchasing behaviors across the industry. In our latest Q4 survey of 780 US consumers, 3 in 4 believe they are paying higher restaurant prices compared to 68% in Q2 2022. To receive the most up-to-date survey results, be sure to subscribe to our mailing list.
- Breakfast traffic decreased by -7.4% YOY, a significant drop compared to last month when decreases were -1.8%. It should be noted that in November 2021, the daypart saw above-average increases (+9.6% YOY). RMS believes the daypart has stabilized at current levels.
- Year-over-year lunch traffic remains down -3.9% YOY, but stable compared to the previous month (-3.8%).
- Dinner traffic continues to outperform breakfast and lunch. November traffic remains slightly below November 2021 (-0.8%) but up from -1.2% last month.
- Among revenue channels, drive-thru had the worst performance. Year-over-year traffic is down -10.2%. However, month-over-month trends have remained stable since May 2022.
- Dine-in performance remained strong in November (+29.6% YOY), though down compared to October 2022 (+37.1%).
- Takeout (+20.6%) continues to perform positively compared to last year, but declined from October 2022 (+28%).
- Delivery traffic remains positive YOY (+11.5%), but performance declined compared to previous months.
The current inflationary environment requires data-driven solutions laser-focused on individual locations and specific guest patterns. Reach out today with questions. We’re here to help.
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