By Sebastián Fernández
Chief Research & Development Officer
When gas prices spike, quick-service restaurant operators feel it at the drive-thru. The connection between fuel costs and quick-service traffic isn’t anecdotal, it’s quantifiable, predictable and significant to the bottom line. Revenue Management Solutions (RMS) analyzed 14.6 billion QSR transactions across four plus years to measure exactly how much.
The short answer: every $1 increase in gas prices can mean roughly six fewer customers per day at the average drive-thru. For a location averaging 300 daily transactions, that translates to approximately $22,000 in lost annual sales. Across hundreds or thousands of locations, those numbers become material very fast.
The Direct Link Between Oil Fields and Drive-Thrus
After the U.S.-Israeli strike on Iran led to the biggest oil supply disruption in history, national gas prices jumped roughly up to 21% according to CNBC and AAA, and analysts expect gasoline to settle between $3.50 and $3.65 per gallon in the short term, with the risk of further increases if the conflict escalates.
That price signal travels fast to consumer spending habits. Every incremental dollar spent at the pump is a dollar reallocated away from discretionary spending, including eating out. For quick-service restaurants built on high-frequency, convenience-driven visits, that reallocation hits quickly and compounds over time.
What 14.6 Billion Transactions Tell Us
RMS analyzed 14.6 billion QSR transactions from 2022 through 2026 to understand the impact of different gas price scenarios on QSR dining habits. Our data included a broad set of QSR brands, controlling for macroeconomic conditions, consumer confidence indices and seasonal traffic patterns. What we found was consistent and statistically significant: higher gas prices suppress QSR visit frequency in a measurable, predictable way.
When gas prices increase 10%, QSR visit frequency drops by approximately 0.6% to 1.2%.
While that percentage may appear modest, the impact compounds quickly across high-volume restaurants.
For example:
- A $1 increase in gas prices can mean roughly six fewer customers per day at the average drive-thru
- For a location averaging 300 daily transactions, that’s approximately $22,000 in lost annual sales
Small shifts in consumer behavior, when multiplied across hundreds or thousands of restaurant locations, become real revenue changes.
Download the Key Findings
View RMS’ breakdown of oil supply impacts for all the stats and predictions, backed by industry experts and proprietary data.
How the Strait of Hormuz Crisis Could Affect QSR Traffic
How much will current events affect QSR visits? To understand the potential range of impact, RMS modeled several geopolitical scenarios tied to the Strait of Hormuz. Even the most optimistic scenario projects meaningful consumer financial pressure.
| SCENARIO | PROJECTED GAS IMPACT | ESTIMATED QSR VISIT IMPACT |
| Limited Escalation Diplomatic progress, contained conflict | +15% (~$3.70/gal) | ~0.7% fewer visits |
| Significant Conflict Prolonged fighting, regional disruption | +30% (~$4.20/gal) | ~1.5% fewer visits |
| Supply Shock Strait of Hormuz threatened or closed | +60%+ (~$5.10/gal) | ~3%+ fewer visits |
In more severe scenarios, restaurant operators should plan for sustained traffic headwinds extending over months, not weeks. Traffic doesn’t bounce back the moment gas prices stabilize, behavioral patterns, once disrupted, take time to normalize.
The $4 Threshold: Where Consumer Behavior Shifts
The most important number in this analysis isn’t a percentage — it’s $4.00 per gallon.
Below that level, most consumers absorb the higher fuel costs and maintain their existing dining habits. Above it, behavioral shifts become more pronounced. Gas transitions from a background expense to a salient budget line item, and consumers become more price-sensitive and make fewer quick-service stops.
With the national average already at $3.54 and rising, operators should treat $4.00 as a near-term operational trigger, not a distant hypothetical.
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Which Restaurants Are Most Affected by Rising Gas Prices?
Not every restaurant concept or location carries equal exposure. Value-oriented QSR brands can actually benefit from higher gas prices as consumers trade down from casual dining and full-service restaurants to lower-cost options. Similarly, urban walk-in locations are more insulated from fuel-driven behavior changes. However, restaurants that rely heavily on commuter traffic, impulse visits and drive-thru convenience are more exposed.
The locations with the most to lose are:
- Suburban drive-thru locations dependent on in-car convenience
- Commuter corridor restaurants where impulse visits drive volume
- Highway and travel-oriented stores where the drive-in decision is fuel-cost-sensitive
Understanding this variability at the restaurant unit level, not just the brand level, gives operators a meaningful competitive advantage when planning traffic-defense strategies.
What Restaurant Operators Can Do Now
While the economy as a whole will feel the pain of a prolonged war and ever-rising gas prices, restaurant operators who understand the relationship between energy markets and consumer behavior can position their menus, promotions and pricing strategies ahead of the curve.
Our pricing experts recommend focusing on:
- Pricing strategy: A blunt price increase in a high-gas environment can accelerate visit frequency decline rather than protect margin. Price Studio models the traffic impact of pricing decisions before they go live so operators can find the right balance between protecting revenue and keeping customers coming back.
- Value messaging: Campaigns emphasizing affordability, bundles and everyday value resonate more powerfully when consumers feel pressure at the pump.
- Limited-time offers: Convenience-driven promotions give customers a specific reason to make a trip even when discretionary spending tightens.
- Loyalty programs: Strong loyalty programs reduce decision friction and help retain customers when price sensitivity rises.
- Menu optimization: Highlighting high-value items at accessible price points can sustain traffic while protecting margins. RMS’ Menu Engineering helps operators identify which items deliver both profitability and customer perceived value.
The connection between oil fields, gas stations and QSR traffic is real and quantifiable. As geopolitical uncertainty persists, the most prepared operators will be those who treat energy market signals with the same rigor they apply to food costs and labor trends.
The next price increase at the pump may already be in motion. At RMS, our pricing experts work with restaurant brands to build location-specific strategies that hold up under pressure. Contact our experts to learn how it will affect your business – and what to do about it.
